Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $946 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$946.28
-$4.47
80.9¢ → 84¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 82.1¢ | $638.61 | $629.34 | -$9.19 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $283.63 | $287.78 | +$4.15 | 50% 1704-1692 (3396) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $41.57 | $12.9 | -$0.81 | 57% 13341-10198 (23539) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $9.6 | $11.4 | +$1.8 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $28.99 | $4.86 | -$0.43 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
IstarothInvested
$638.61
Value
$629.34
PnL
-$9.19
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$283.63
Value
$287.78
PnL
+$4.15
Record
50%
1704-1692 (3396)
Invested
$41.57
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$0.81
Record
57%
13341-10198 (23539)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$1.8
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$28.99
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0.43
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.