Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $389 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$388.61
$171.54
35.9¢ → 97.5¢
+171% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 33¢ | $81.15 | $226.67 | +$145.51 | 55% 340-274 (614) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $97.59 | $142.98 | +$36.77 | 59% 1692-1154 (2846) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $16.28 | $9.38 | -$5.6 | 53% 6437-5635 (12072) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Yesavg 86.3¢ | $13.09 | $9.31 | -$3.78 | 55% 17758-14378 (32136) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.9¢ | $1.65 | $0.28 | -$1.37 | 32% 4382-9430 (13812) |
Invested
$81.15
Value
$226.67
PnL
+$145.51
Record
55%
340-274 (614)
Invested
$97.59
Value
$142.98
PnL
+$36.77
Record
59%
1692-1154 (2846)
Invested
$16.28
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$5.6
Record
53%
6437-5635 (12072)
Invested
$13.09
Value
$9.31
PnL
-$3.78
Record
55%
17758-14378 (32136)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$1.37
Record
32%
4382-9430 (13812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.