Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $278 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$277.57
$2.4
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $282.16 | $249.31 | -$4.17 | 25% 282-835 (1117) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.5¢ | $93.41 | $124.66 | +$27.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $158.29 | $124.65 | -$31.46 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 77.8¢ | $27.36 | $25.75 | +$2.4 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 55% 17349-13981 (31330) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.