Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $352 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$352.34
$29.28
77.6¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 74.1¢ | $150.84 | $174.96 | +$24.12 | 55% 221-183 (404) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $78.63 | $72.3 | -$0.31 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 81.7¢ | $48.75 | $51.32 | +$2.57 | 53% 6241-5478 (11719) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $45.52 | $44.13 | +$1.49 | 61% 1532-972 (2504) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $26.28 | $9.64 | +$1.41 | 57% 12917-9835 (22752) |
Invested
$150.84
Value
$174.96
PnL
+$24.12
Record
55%
221-183 (404)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$78.63
Value
$72.3
PnL
-$0.31
Record
31%
273-604 (877)
Invested
$48.75
Value
$51.32
PnL
+$2.57
Record
53%
6241-5478 (11719)
Invested
$45.52
Value
$44.13
PnL
+$1.49
Record
61%
1532-972 (2504)
Invested
$26.28
Value
$9.64
PnL
+$1.41
Record
57%
12917-9835 (22752)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.