Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on November 8?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 2.5¢ · $167 held · ended Nov 8

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$167.19

Combined PnL

-$16.76

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$54.04

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$38.86

Yes6 traders

Total Value$113.15

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$22.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$76.66	$51.26	-$25.4	53% 5069-4423 (9492)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$32.57	$50.95	+$18.38	57% 903-691 (1594)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 61.5¢	$19.34	$22	+$2.66	55% 25972-21275 (47247)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 92.7¢	$19.91	$18.19	-$1.72	46% 6880-8136 (15016)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 91.2¢	$10.78	$11.52	+$0.74	46% 6625-7759 (14384)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 88.7¢	$8.23	$9.04	+$0.81	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 20.6¢	$5.01	$2.04	-$10.01	70% 16760-7350 (24110)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.22	$1.45	+$1.24	43% 18506-24161 (42667)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.07	$0.25	-$0.82	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 5.8¢	$0.35	$0.2	-$0.15	22% 3328-11821 (15149)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$2.62	$0.2	-$2.42	61% 725-457 (1182)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$0.16	$0.1	-$0.07	50% 9315-9358 (18673)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$76.66

Value

$51.26

PnL

-$25.4

Record

53%

5069-4423 (9492)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.57

Value

$50.95

PnL

+$18.38

Record

57%

903-691 (1594)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.34

Value

$22

PnL

+$2.66

Record

55%

25972-21275 (47247)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.91

Value

$18.19

PnL

-$1.72

Record

46%

6880-8136 (15016)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.78

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$0.74

Record

46%

6625-7759 (14384)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.23

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.81

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$10.01

Record

70%

16760-7350 (24110)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$1.24

Record

43%

18506-24161 (42667)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.82

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

22%

3328-11821 (15149)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.42

Record

61%

725-457 (1182)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.6%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2665.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

2765.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.