Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on November 8?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 62¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$65.1
-$0.42
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $28.9 | $27.46 | -$2.11 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $17.63 | $19.35 | +$1.72 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $18.2 | $18.17 | -$0.03 | 54% 10777-9308 (20085) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.