Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 7?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$63.53
$39.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $19.7 | $24.48 | +$4.79 | 58% 21477-15583 (37060) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 3.3¢ | $2.04 | $21.26 | +$49.69 | 38% 1245-2033 (3278) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.75 | $9.21 | -$0.15 | 42% 2390-3312 (5702) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $6.24 | $7.07 | +$0.81 | 53% 4120-3688 (7808) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $73.27 | $1.5 | -$15.99 | 71% 14022-5771 (19793) |
Invested
$19.7
Value
$24.48
PnL
+$4.79
Record
58%
21477-15583 (37060)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$49.69
Record
38%
1245-2033 (3278)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.21
PnL
-$0.15
Record
42%
2390-3312 (5702)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.81
Record
53%
4120-3688 (7808)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$73.27
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$15.99
Record
71%
14022-5771 (19793)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.