Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 5?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$0.05
-$3.43
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.15 | $0.02 | -$0.13 | 54% 12396-10610 (23006) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.63 | 58% 15787-11487 (27274) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.63 | 38% 7280-11715 (18995) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.05 | $0 | -$0.04 | 72% 13767-5236 (19003) |
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.13
Record
54%
12396-10610 (23006)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.63
Record
58%
15787-11487 (27274)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.63
Record
38%
7280-11715 (18995)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.04
Record
72%
13767-5236 (19003)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.