Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on November 4?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 100¢ · $597 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$596.61

Combined PnL

-$4.5

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$596.46

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$4.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.04

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 99.5¢	$109.43	$109.37	-$0.06	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
Istaroth	Noavg 99.5¢	$105.5	$105.36	-$0.13	15% 447-2555 (3002)
GO godblessme2026<$100	No	$79.6	$79.6	+$0	41% 6811-9665 (16476)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.2¢	$109.5	$68.68	-$4.69	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$68.24	$68.19	-$0.05	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$32.22	$32.37	+$0.15	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$30.57	$30.6	+$0.02	31% 2304-5170 (7474)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$29.82	+$0	53% 28943-25862 (54805)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$26.07	$25.9	-$0.17	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$17.21	$17.31	+$0.1	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$12.68	$12.72	+$0.04	49% 555-588 (1143)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.58	$9.57	-$0.01	41% 1149-1645 (2794)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$6.71	$6.96	+$0.25	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.08	+$0.05	20% 2544-10095 (12639)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.08	$0.07	-$0.01	39% 1012-1603 (2615)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$109.43

Value

$109.37

PnL

-$0.06

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

Istaroth

Invested

$105.5

Value

$105.36

PnL

-$0.13

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$79.6

Value

$79.6

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

6811-9665 (16476)

Lucerys

Invested

$109.5

Value

$68.68

PnL

-$4.69

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$68.24

Value

$68.19

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$32.22

Value

$32.37

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$30.57

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

2304-5170 (7474)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

28943-25862 (54805)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$26.07

Value

$25.9

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.21

Value

$17.31

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$12.72

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

555-588 (1143)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

1149-1645 (2794)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.05

Record

20%

2544-10095 (12639)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.