Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on November 3?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $568 held · ended Nov 3

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$567.67

Combined PnL

$6.87

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 98.3¢

+66% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$326.25

Total Shares472

Combined PnL+$28.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$103.92

Total Shares162

Combined PnL-$21.93

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$170.09	$137.5	-$12.11	16% 427-2305 (2732)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$107.37	$77.53	-$34.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.5¢	$41.68	$59.97	+$22.43
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$76.8	$74.36	-$2.44	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$70.54	$65.91	-$4.63	53% 3647-3270 (6917)
balthazar<$100	No	$57.91	$57.91	+$0	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 48.9¢	$41.59	$51.64	+$10.05	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$10.93	$41.66	-$10.17	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.9¢	$22.64	$33.37	+$10.72	39% 974-1548 (2522)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$24.97	$23.29	+$1.12	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$10.49	$22.7	+$12.21	40% 980-1494 (2474)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.7¢	$41.74	$19.74	-$22	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$7.59	$9.79	+$2.2	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Yesavg 58.3¢	$8.83	$8.72	-$0.11	55% 19429-15922 (35351)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$5.52	$8.2	+$2.68	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$3.67	$5.22	+$1.55	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$28.89	$4.02	+$4.97	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$4	$1.73	+$1.01	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 90¢	$1.38	$1.47	+$0.09	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$0.8	$0.43	-$0.36	38% 947-1564 (2511)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$170.09

Value

$137.5

PnL

-$12.11

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Both legs:

No$107.3773.4¢-$34.54

Yes$41.6828.5¢+$22.43

hello.67<$100

Invested

$76.8

Value

$74.36

PnL

-$2.44

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$70.54

Value

$65.91

PnL

-$4.63

Record

53%

3647-3270 (6917)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$57.91

Value

$57.91

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$41.59

Value

$51.64

PnL

+$10.05

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.93

Value

$41.66

PnL

-$10.17

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.64

Value

$33.37

PnL

+$10.72

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$23.29

PnL

+$1.12

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$22.7

PnL

+$12.21

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.74

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$22

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$2.2

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.83

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

19429-15922 (35351)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$2.68

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$1.55

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.89

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$4.97

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$1.01

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.09

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.36

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.