Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on November 16?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$95.75

Combined PnL

-$0.09

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$95.75

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$0.09

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.5	$24.61	+$0.11	33% 80-164 (244)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$13.96	$13.93	-$0.04	52% 865-790 (1655)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.85	-$0	34% 329-653 (982)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.85	+$0	34% 303-590 (893)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.85	-$0.12	98% 1504-23 (1527)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.84	$9.8	-$0.04	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$7.91	$7.89	-$0.02	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$5.07	$5.06	-$0.01	58% 820-591 (1411)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$4.92	+$0.02	53% 2122-1900 (4022)

123987456<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$0.11

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.96

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.91

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.