Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 78¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 16

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$109.38

Combined PnL

-$2.7

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 77.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$106.77

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$3.78

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.11

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$1.08

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$27	$31.48	+$4.48	40% 47-70 (117)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.85	$19.57	-$4.28	53% 7408-6544 (13952)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$19.82	$18.31	-$1.51	71% 920-377 (1297)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$26.13	$14.61	-$1.21	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$9.82	$9.09	-$0.73	58% 840-598 (1438)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.55	+$0.05	65% 4359-2378 (6737)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 70¢	$5.64	$5.15	-$0.48	47% 872-965 (1837)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.02	$2.11	+$1.08	14% 98-588 (686)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 70¢	$1.11	$1.02	-$0.1	52% 883-806 (1689)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$31.48

PnL

+$4.48

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.85

Value

$19.57

PnL

-$4.28

Record

53%

7408-6544 (13952)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$18.31

PnL

-$1.51

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.13

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$1.21

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.73

Record

58%

840-598 (1438)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

4359-2378 (6737)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

872-965 (1837)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$1.08

Record

14%

98-588 (686)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

883-806 (1689)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.