Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 16?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 49¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 16

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$93.18

Combined PnL

$0.43

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$72.65

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$0.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.53

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$0.4

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$23.5	$24.5	+$1	62% 1165-716 (1881)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$14.37	$14.98	+$0.61	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$10.65	$10.45	-$0.2	30% 251-582 (833)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.28	$10.08	-$0.2	71% 917-377 (1294)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.61	$9.5	-$0.11	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.9	+$0	34% 329-653 (982)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.85	-$0.05	34% 303-590 (893)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$4.56	$4.37	-$0.19	49% 877-897 (1774)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.81	$3.65	-$0.16	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.78	$3.62	-$0.16	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.38	$2.27	-$0.1	47% 852-950 (1802)

vibing123CTR<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$1

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.37

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$0.2

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.28

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.2

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.11

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.19

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.81

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.