Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 16?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 93¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 16

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$186.55

Combined PnL

$0.2

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 92.5¢

+16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$65.11

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$3.26

No10 traders

Total Value$121.44

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$3.46

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$45.1	$45.1	+$0	62% 1165-716 (1881)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.63	$25.07	+$2.45	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$24.13	$24.53	+$0.41	71% 917-377 (1294)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$38.77	$19.58	-$3.78	14% 97-580 (677)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$17.34	$18.31	+$0.96	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.4	$16.4	+$0	34% 303-590 (893)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.3	-$0.1	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.2	+$0	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 83¢	$6.68	$6.56	-$0.12	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.13	$5.07	-$0.06	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.81	$4.78	-$0.03	59% 827-567 (1394)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.26	$4.21	-$0.05	13% 117-766 (883)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$13.89	$0.44	+$0.53	30% 251-582 (833)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.1

Value

$45.1

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1165-716 (1881)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.63

Value

$25.07

PnL

+$2.45

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.13

Value

$24.53

PnL

+$0.41

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.77

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$3.78

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.34

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$0.96

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.68

Value

$6.56

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.05

Record

13%

117-766 (883)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.53

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.