Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 16?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$144.39
-$2.3
98.5¢ → 98.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $32.45 | $32.39 | -$0.06 | 53% 7612-6705 (14317) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.54 | +$0.14 | 39% 346-547 (893) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $20.08 | $20.07 | -$0.01 | 50% 910-924 (1834) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.72 | $19.69 | -$0.02 | 30% 1195-2736 (3931) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $19.66 | $19.65 | -$0.01 | 48% 1294-1427 (2721) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $9.57 | $9.56 | -$0.01 | 47% 938-1056 (1994) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $7.93 | $7.93 | -$0.01 | 60% 938-634 (1572) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $5.1 | $5.09 | -$0.01 | 52% 969-886 (1855) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.78 | $0.47 | -$2.3 | 14% 110-653 (763) |
Invested
$32.45
Value
$32.39
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
7612-6705 (14317)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.54
PnL
+$0.14
Record
39%
346-547 (893)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$20.07
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
910-924 (1834)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.69
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
1195-2736 (3931)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
1294-1427 (2721)
Invested
$9.57
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
938-1056 (1994)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$7.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
60%
938-634 (1572)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
969-886 (1855)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.78
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$2.3
Record
14%
110-653 (763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
No — $32.39
god83743894
No — $29.54
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $20.07
northdrawer
No — $19.69
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $19.65
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $9.56
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $7.93
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $5.09
LornaPredicts
CTRYes — $0.47