Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on November 15?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $810 held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$809.9

Combined PnL

-$2.24

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 96.4¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$809.9

Total Shares834

Combined PnL-$2.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.6¢	$512.92	$510.01	-$2.91	42% 803-1100 (1903)
12 123987456	Noavg 98.4¢	$180.08	$180.99	+$0.91	33% 83-166 (249)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$37.63	$37.46	-$0.17	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.78	$29.67	-$0.11	99% 1609-24 (1633)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$15.62	$15.85	+$0.23	71% 950-388 (1338)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$10.63	$10.48	-$0.14	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.89	-$0.03	36% 332-601 (933)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.03	$5.08	+$0.04	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.99	$5.01	+$0.02	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$3.65	$3.59	-$0.06	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$1.88	$1.86	-$0.02	57% 836-638 (1474)

241532532432

Invested

$512.92

Value

$510.01

PnL

-$2.91

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

123987456

Invested

$180.08

Value

$180.99

PnL

+$0.91

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.63

Value

$37.46

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$29.78

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$0.11

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.62

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$0.23

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.48

PnL

-$0.14

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.