Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $163 held · ended Nov 15

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$162.82

Combined PnL

-$0.94

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 78.5¢

-8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$136.22

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$15.62

Yes2 traders

Total Value$26.61

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$14.69

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$80.02	$30.69	-$7.96	29% 308-740 (1048)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$33.91	$29.93	-$3.98	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$10.54	$25.6	+$15.06	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$20.26	$20.14	-$0.11	71% 950-388 (1338)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$20.58	$19.91	-$0.67	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$21.15	$19.76	-$1.39	61% 1200-763 (1963)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.3	$7.9	-$1.4	39% 327-521 (848)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.01	$3.95	-$0.05	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.98	$3.93	-$0.05	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$1.38	$1.01	-$0.37	60% 874-593 (1467)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$80.02

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$7.96

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.91

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$3.98

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.54

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$15.06

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.26

Value

$20.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.58

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$19.76

PnL

-$1.39

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$1.4

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.37

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.