Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 30¢ · $325 held · ended Nov 15

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$325.12

Combined PnL

-$241.05

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 29.5¢

-51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$250.42

Total Shares816

Combined PnL-$256.34

Yes3 traders

Total Value$74.7

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$15.29

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 60.3¢	$431.9	$214.8	-$217.1	61% 1200-763 (1963)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 54.9¢	$91.25	$44	+$9.69	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$22.28	$27.22	+$4.94	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$22.04	$12.35	-$9.69	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$64	$11.46	-$27.15	29% 308-740 (1048)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$15.56	$10.32	-$2.37	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.82	$3.48	+$0.66	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.51	$1.49	-$0.03	50% 919-925 (1844)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$431.9

Value

$214.8

PnL

-$217.1

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.25

Value

$44

PnL

+$9.69

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.28

Value

$27.22

PnL

+$4.94

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$22.04

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$9.69

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$64

Value

$11.46

PnL

-$27.15

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$10.32

PnL

-$2.37

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.66

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.