Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $109 held · ended Nov 15

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$109.42

Combined PnL

-$3.42

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$91.55

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$19.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.87

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$23.19

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$23.96	$35.23	+$11.27	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$17.56	$22.07	+$4.51	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$12.9	$13.95	+$1.05	71% 950-388 (1338)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$13.96	$9.79	-$4.17	42% 803-1100 (1903)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.5	$9.3	+$2.8	38% 317-524 (841)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$26.6	$7.6	-$19	61% 1200-763 (1963)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$6.23	$6.29	+$0.07	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.64	$4.71	+$0.08	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.48	-$0.03	51% 945-892 (1837)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.96

Value

$35.23

PnL

+$11.27

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.56

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$4.51

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.96

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$4.17

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$2.8

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$19

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.23

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.