Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $112 held · ended Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$111.73

Combined PnL

-$7.33

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 98.3¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$109.6

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$4.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.13

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$12.12

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$35.94	$37.5	+$1.56	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$30.43	$33.24	+$2.81	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$14.79	$14.85	+$0.06	33% 83-166 (249)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.9	+$0.4	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.66	$6.64	-$0.02	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.99	$4.97	-$0.02	47% 887-1007 (1894)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$14.15	$2.05	-$12.1	61% 1200-763 (1963)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.08	-$0.02	47% 1242-1391 (2633)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.94

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$1.56

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.43

Value

$33.24

PnL

+$2.81

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.06

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.15

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$12.1

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.