Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $270 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$269.57

Combined PnL

-$13.52

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$269.19

Total Shares270

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$13.55

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$129.75	$129.68	-$0.07	99% 1015-11 (1026)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.94	+$0.03	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.94	+$0.06	29% 185-443 (628)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.96	$29.93	-$0.03	27% 973-2599 (3572)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.72	$29.75	+$0.03	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.96	+$0.02	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.2	-$8.89	30% 108-251 (359)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	13% 62-416 (478)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.2	$0.07	-$3.13	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.1	$0.02	-$1.53	30% 612-1455 (2067)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$129.75

Value

$129.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.96

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.72

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.03

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$8.89

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.13

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.53

Record

30%

612-1455 (2067)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.