Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $749 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$748.87
$6
93.3¢ → 91.8¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $307.37 | $305.85 | -$1.52 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $183.97 | $193.24 | +$9.27 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $114.52 | $110.11 | -$4.42 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $56.18 | $56.34 | +$0.16 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90.3¢ | $249.88 | $30.72 | +$4.14 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $29.19 | $27.57 | -$1.62 | 99% 1015-11 (1026) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 93.2¢ | $130.74 | $18.96 | -$0.04 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $6.06 | $6.08 | +$0.03 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$307.37
Value
$305.85
PnL
-$1.52
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$183.97
Value
$193.24
PnL
+$9.27
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$114.52
Value
$110.11
PnL
-$4.42
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$56.18
Value
$56.34
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
HaradwaithInvested
$249.88
Value
$30.72
PnL
+$4.14
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$27.57
PnL
-$1.62
Record
99%
1015-11 (1026)
Invested
$130.74
Value
$18.96
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$6.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.