Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 14?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 40¢ · $681 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$681.14
$101.54
32.8¢ → 39.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $483.59 | $580 | +$96.41 | 62% 1124-676 (1800) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $40.84 | $39.38 | -$1.47 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $31.17 | $30.66 | -$0.51 | 39% 31-48 (79) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.2 | $14.1 | +$10.9 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 62.9¢ | $9.31 | $8.6 | -$0.71 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $11.48 | $8.4 | -$3.07 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
Invested
$483.59
Value
$580
PnL
+$96.41
Record
62%
1124-676 (1800)
Invested
$40.84
Value
$39.38
PnL
-$1.47
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$31.17
Value
$30.66
PnL
-$0.51
Record
39%
31-48 (79)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$10.9
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.71
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$3.07
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.