Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$133.08

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 52¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,250

Combined PnL+$87.27

Yes4 traders

Total Value$119.71

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$45.81

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 45.3¢	$486.48	$569.22	+$82.74	62% 1124-676 (1800)
HE hello.67	Noavg 53¢	$487.52	$459.99	+$4.52	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$129.75	$84.08	+$39.45	30% 108-251 (359)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 53¢	$48.76	$47.84	-$0.92	38% 543-874 (1417)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 50¢	$34.22	$35.59	+$1.37	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50¢	$30	$31.8	+$1.8	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 49¢	$29.4	$31.2	+$1.8	27% 197-540 (737)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.7¢	$17.09	$16.98	-$0.11	73% 778-291 (1069)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$10.6	$10	-$0.6	13% 62-416 (478)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.57	$8.65	+$7.07	30% 612-1455 (2067)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$21.74	$5.59	-$4.04	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

vibing123

Invested

$486.48

Value

$569.22

PnL

+$82.74

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

hello.67

Invested

$487.52

Value

$459.99

PnL

+$4.52

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.75

Value

$84.08

PnL

+$39.45

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$48.76

Value

$47.84

PnL

-$0.92

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$34.22

Value

$35.59

PnL

+$1.37

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$31.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.09

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$0.11

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.6

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$7.07

Record

30%

612-1455 (2067)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.74

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$4.04

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.