Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 14

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$181.79

Combined PnL

$2.86

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$151.52

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$5.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$30.26

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$2.29

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94¢	$56.4	$57	+$0.6	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$55.51	$57	+$1.49	27% 973-2599 (3572)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 87¢	$25.93	$28.32	+$2.38	30% 989-2362 (3351)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$12.69	$12.06	-$0.63	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.53	$9.21	+$0.68	73% 778-291 (1069)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$8.88	$8.88	-$0	39% 31-48 (79)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.38	$5.79	-$1.58	13% 62-416 (478)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$2.77	$3.21	+$0.44	38% 543-874 (1417)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.01	$0.31	-$0.52	30% 612-1455 (2067)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$57

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$55.51

Value

$57

PnL

+$1.49

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$25.93

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$2.38

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$8.53

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.68

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.88

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$1.58

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.01

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.52

Record

30%

612-1455 (2067)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.