Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$201.5

Combined PnL

-$13.4

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$200.7

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$0.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$14.16

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$89.31	$89.28	-$0.03	30% 1042-2403 (3445)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.6	$59.52	-$0.08	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.22	$29.57	+$0.35	35% 250-467 (717)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.3	$19.84	+$0.54	40% 657-989 (1646)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	99% 1293-18 (1311)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.2	$0.28	-$2.92	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.07	$0.27	+$0.2	14% 82-514 (596)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.82	$0.15	-$10.04	31% 165-364 (529)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.04	$0.1	-$1.4	27% 691-1911 (2602)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$89.31

Value

$89.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

1042-2403 (3445)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.6

Value

$59.52

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.57

PnL

+$0.35

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$0.54

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$2.92

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.2

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.82

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$10.04

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.04

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.4

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.