Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $91 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$90.83
-$33.71
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.96 | +$0.02 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.96 | $29.96 | +$0 | 27% 200-540 (740) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.75 | $29.77 | +$0.02 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $79.58 | $0.52 | -$18.93 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $0.35 | -$8.74 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.2 | $0.12 | -$3.08 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.11 | -$2.62 | 31% 190-428 (618) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.02 | +$0.01 | 13% 65-441 (506) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.41 | $0.02 | -$0.39 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$29.96
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
200-540 (740)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$29.77
PnL
+$0.02
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$79.58
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$18.93
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$8.74
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$3.08
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$2.62
Record
31%
190-428 (618)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0.01
Record
13%
65-441 (506)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.39
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.