Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 13?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $496 held · ended Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$496.26

Combined PnL

$5.84

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 97.9¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$496.26

Total Shares509

Combined PnL+$5.84

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.7¢	$301.41	$306.75	+$5.34	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95¢	$94.99	$52.18	+$1.55	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$25.64	$25.73	+$0.09	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$22.06	$21.93	-$0.12	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$21.13	$21.09	-$0.05	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$21.65	$21.06	-$0.59	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.21	$19.48	+$0.27	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.78	$14.46	-$0.32	50% 726-731 (1457)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99¢	$6.31	$6.17	-$0.14	29% 185-443 (628)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.09	$4.96	-$0.13	50% 651-658 (1309)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.44	-$0.06	99% 1015-11 (1026)

241532532432

Invested

$301.41

Value

$306.75

PnL

+$5.34

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$94.99

Value

$52.18

PnL

+$1.55

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$25.64

Value

$25.73

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$22.06

Value

$21.93

PnL

-$0.12

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$21.13

Value

$21.09

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$21.06

PnL

-$0.59

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$19.21

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.78

Value

$14.46

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$0.14

Record

29%

185-443 (628)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.