Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on November 13?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 87¢ · $130 held · ends Nov 13

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$130.35

Combined PnL

$10.62

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$94.48

Total Shares727

Combined PnL+$12.01

No5 traders

Total Value$35.87

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$69.72	$78.4	+$8.68	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$12.75	$16.08	+$3.33	37% 467-800 (1267)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.91	$8.8	-$0.1	60% 542-365 (907)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87¢	$7.98	$7.98	+$0	48% 622-673 (1295)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.88	$6.96	+$0.08	74% 721-251 (972)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$7.77	$6.58	-$1.19	53% 1117-973 (2090)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5.73	$5.54	-$0.19	26% 909-2537 (3446)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.72

Value

$78.4

PnL

+$8.68

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.75

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$3.33

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

60%

542-365 (907)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

622-673 (1295)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

74%

721-251 (972)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$1.19

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.19

Record

26%

909-2537 (3446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.