Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on November 13?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 62¢ · $489 held · ended Nov 13

Yes62¢No38¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$488.63

Combined PnL

$23.01

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 61.6¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$250.77

Total Shares421

Combined PnL-$20.06

No9 traders

Total Value$237.85

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$43.07

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 67.5¢	$191.54	$167.85	-$23.68	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
BI BilberryCTR	Noavg 33.5¢	$122.17	$166.42	+$44.25	39% 31-48 (79)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 55.3¢	$57.42	$48.57	+$2.32	38% 543-874 (1417)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$16.22	$17.16	+$0.94	48% 710-781 (1491)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$19.94	$16.41	+$0.58	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$14.95	$16.12	+$1.17	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$12.15	$11.71	-$0.44	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$7.66	$7.35	-$0.31	50% 690-680 (1370)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 66.4¢	$7.4	$6.59	-$0.81	73% 778-291 (1069)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$10.32	$6.13	-$1.91	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 33.6¢	$4.77	$5.97	+$1.2	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$4.58	$5.92	+$1.34	37% 165-281 (446)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.23	$5.43	+$0.2	58% 632-454 (1086)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$6.04	$4.09	-$1.95	50% 651-658 (1309)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$2.78	$2.9	+$0.12	31% 221-498 (719)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$191.54

Value

$167.85

PnL

-$23.68

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

BilberryCTR

Invested

$122.17

Value

$166.42

PnL

+$44.25

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.42

Value

$48.57

PnL

+$2.32

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.94

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.94

Value

$16.41

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$14.95

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$1.17

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$7.66

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.81

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$10.32

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$1.91

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$1.2

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.58

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$1.34

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$1.95

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$56.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

156.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.