Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on November 13?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 89¢ · $566 held · ended Nov 13

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$566.37

Combined PnL

-$46.89

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 89.4¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$544.09

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$5.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$22.28

Total Shares223

Combined PnL-$41.72

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.9¢	$416.57	$357.89	-$3.53	38% 543-874 (1417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$95.59	$80.58	-$7.9	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$19.11	$23.59	+$4.48	58% 656-481 (1137)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$64	$22.28	-$41.72	39% 31-48 (79)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.93	$20.03	+$0.1	50% 726-731 (1457)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$19.78	$18.91	-$0.87	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$10.77	$10.64	-$0.14	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.26	$9.89	+$1.63	50% 651-658 (1309)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85¢	$13.1	$6.51	+$0.38	73% 778-291 (1069)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.86	$5.86	+$0	62% 657-409 (1066)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.3	$5.35	+$0.05	48% 710-781 (1491)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.85	+$0.65	50% 690-680 (1370)

241532532432

Invested

$416.57

Value

$357.89

PnL

-$3.53

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$95.59

Value

$80.58

PnL

-$7.9

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.11

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$4.48

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$22.28

PnL

-$41.72

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.93

Value

$20.03

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$18.91

PnL

-$0.87

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$10.64

PnL

-$0.14

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.26

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$1.63

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.38

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

657-409 (1066)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.8%

89.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.