Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $104 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$103.56

Combined PnL

-$0.18

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$103.54

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$0.34

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.52

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$36.92	$36.92	-$0	45% 521-645 (1166)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$22.33	$22.47	+$0.14	99% 675-8 (683)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$15.19	$15.32	+$0.13	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$13.5	$13.58	+$0.07	25% 92-281 (373)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.16	-$0	42% 838-1166 (2004)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.07	-$0	62% 471-291 (762)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.01	$5.02	+$0.01	47% 544-625 (1169)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.54	$0.02	-$0.52	47% 4825-5515 (10340)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.92

Value

$36.92

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$22.33

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$0.14

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.32

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.52

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.