Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 12

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$131.46

Combined PnL

-$5.57

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$110.38

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$0.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$21.08

Total Shares174

Combined PnL-$4.88

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$58.83	$58.05	-$0.77	34% 356-690 (1046)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$25.96	$21.08	-$4.88	68% 2107-991 (3098)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$16.4	$16.57	+$0.17	55% 683-554 (1237)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$13.81	$13.21	-$0.6	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 87¢	$11.83	$12.05	+$0.22	17% 69-331 (400)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$5.42	$5.58	+$0.16	38% 3372-5405 (8777)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$4.78	$4.91	+$0.13	13% 28-182 (210)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$58.83

Value

$58.05

PnL

-$0.77

Record

34%

356-690 (1046)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.96

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$4.88

Record

68%

2107-991 (3098)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$11.83

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$0.22

Record

17%

69-331 (400)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.16

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.13

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.