Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 50¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 12

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$127.37

Combined PnL

-$4.98

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 49.9¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$120.45

Total Shares247

Combined PnL-$4.89

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.92

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.09

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$52.42	$50.42	-$2	68% 2107-991 (3098)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$46.93	$46.17	-$0.76	34% 356-690 (1046)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$8.58	$7.46	-$1.12	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$7.01	$6.92	-$0.09	77% 618-184 (802)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$6.6	$6.77	+$0.17	27% 940-2516 (3456)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$12.08	$6.51	-$1.24	55% 683-554 (1237)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$3.06	$3.13	+$0.07	38% 3372-5405 (8777)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$52.42

Value

$50.42

PnL

-$2

Record

68%

2107-991 (3098)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$46.93

Value

$46.17

PnL

-$0.76

Record

34%

356-690 (1046)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$6.92

PnL

-$0.09

Record

77%

618-184 (802)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$0.17

Record

27%

940-2516 (3456)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$1.24

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.1%

49.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.