Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on November 11?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 99¢ · $141 held · ended Nov 11

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$140.73

Combined PnL

-$0.71

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$139.98

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.93

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.74

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$0.22

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$41.06	$41.05	-$0.02	37% 3224-5382 (8606)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$36.42	$36.07	-$0.34	49% 353-368 (721)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.78	$15.46	-$0.32	41% 700-997 (1697)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$14.71	$14.71	+$0	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.66	$10.51	-$0.16	47% 368-407 (775)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.87	-$0.09	79% 394-105 (499)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.83	$9.82	-$0.01	48% 90-97 (187)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 288-2 (290)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.36	$0.47	+$0.11	44% 401-519 (920)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.14	$0.24	+$0.11	45% 391-471 (862)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	55% 581-483 (1064)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$41.06

Value

$41.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$36.42

Value

$36.07

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

353-368 (721)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$15.46

PnL

-$0.32

Record

41%

700-997 (1697)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.71

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$0.16

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.09

Record

79%

394-105 (499)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

90-97 (187)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

288-2 (290)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.11

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.11

Record

45%

391-471 (862)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

581-483 (1064)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 78% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.