Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.9K
-$62.14
95.4¢ → 94.8¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$6.23 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $794.96 | $731.58 | -$63.37 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $51.16 | $38.07 | +$3.11 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.47 | $18.78 | +$4.3 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.24 | $0.3 | +$0.06 | 45% 306-367 (673) |
Invested
$1,092.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$6.23
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$794.96
Value
$731.58
PnL
-$63.37
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$51.16
Value
$38.07
PnL
+$3.11
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$14.47
Value
$18.78
PnL
+$4.3
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.06
Record
45%
306-367 (673)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.