Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
-$13.71
79.7¢ → 77.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $714.76 | $691.4 | -$23.36 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $336.38 | $337.19 | +$0.81 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $66.62 | $73.76 | +$7.14 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $20.89 | $17.28 | +$1.19 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $1.96 | $2.47 | +$0.51 | 42% 321-439 (760) |
Invested
$714.76
Value
$691.4
PnL
-$23.36
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$336.38
Value
$337.19
PnL
+$0.81
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$66.62
Value
$73.76
PnL
+$7.14
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$20.89
Value
$17.28
PnL
+$1.19
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.51
Record
42%
321-439 (760)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.