Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on November 11?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $784 held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$783.88

Combined PnL

$40.57

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$344.53

Total Shares599

Combined PnL+$24.83

No3 traders

Total Value$40.43

Total Shares74

Combined PnL+$15.74

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$363.52	$398.91	+$35.39	32% 299-629 (928)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.6¢	$239.5	$203.97	-$35.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.3¢	$124.02	$194.94	+$70.92
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$122.62	$173.88	+$51.26	68% 2070-957 (3027)
PO PoligarchCTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$123.05	$103.08	-$19.97	80% 570-145 (715)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$43.32	$31.45	+$0.04	55% 581-483 (1064)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$12.37	$22.65	+$10.27	37% 3224-5382 (8606)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$11.02	$15.04	+$4.02	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$9.21	$10.92	+$3.57	44% 401-519 (920)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$6.06	$7.72	+$1.66	48% 90-97 (187)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 53.8¢	$11.9	$7.4	-$1.15	45% 391-471 (862)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$5.93	$5.08	-$0.86	49% 353-368 (721)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 26¢	$1.3	$2.75	+$1.45	79% 394-105 (499)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.54	$2.48	-$0.05	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.87	$2.26	-$0.6	41% 700-997 (1697)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$9.32	$0.24	-$9.08	47% 368-407 (775)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$363.52

Value

$398.91

PnL

+$35.39

Record

32%

299-629 (928)

Both legs:

No$239.564.6¢-$35.53

Yes$124.0236.3¢+$70.92

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$122.62

Value

$173.88

PnL

+$51.26

Record

68%

2070-957 (3027)

PoligarchCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.05

Value

$103.08

PnL

-$19.97

Record

80%

570-145 (715)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.32

Value

$31.45

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

581-483 (1064)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$10.27

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$15.04

PnL

+$4.02

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.21

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$3.57

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.06

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

90-97 (187)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.9

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$1.15

Record

45%

391-471 (862)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0.86

Record

49%

353-368 (721)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$1.45

Record

79%

394-105 (499)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.6

Record

41%

700-997 (1697)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.32

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$9.08

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.