Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 11?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 11

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$263.72

Combined PnL

-$5.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$45.79

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$5.76

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.48

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.1

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$223	$213.46	-$9.54	30% 256-590 (846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.3¢	$111.6	$125.77	+$14.17
└ No leg	Noavg 95.2¢	$111.41	$87.69	-$23.72
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$48.34	$30.74	-$6.2	54% 445-377 (822)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77¢	$14.61	$15.05	+$0.43	81% 525-121 (646)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$3.24	$2.97	-$0.27	68% 2062-949 (3011)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$1.34	$1.51	+$0.16	48% 307-339 (646)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$223

Value

$213.46

PnL

-$9.54

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Both legs:

Yes$111.622.3¢+$14.17

No$111.4195.2¢-$23.72

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$48.34

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$6.2

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.61

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$0.43

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.27

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.