Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 11¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$52.94
-$1.51
Research grade
AvoidYes at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $35.31 | $35.19 | -$0.12 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $7.23 | $7.12 | -$0.11 | 28% 214-553 (767) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $5.82 | $5.82 | +$0 | 83% 489-98 (587) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $5.68 | $4.26 | -$1.42 | 69% 2060-946 (3006) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.41 | $0.55 | +$0.14 | 43% 258-349 (607) |
Invested
$35.31
Value
$35.19
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$0.11
Record
28%
214-553 (767)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
489-98 (587)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$4.26
PnL
-$1.42
Record
69%
2060-946 (3006)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.14
Record
43%
258-349 (607)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.