Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on November 10?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$98

Combined PnL

$2.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$91.42

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$1.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$6.17

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$4.28

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$50.9	$50.06	-$0.84	35% 2852-5315 (8167)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$28.98	$28.5	-$0.48	11% 35-270 (305)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.04	$7.91	-$0.13	80% 140-34 (174)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.89	$6.17	+$4.28	21% 133-488 (621)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.96	$4.95	-$0.01	52% 223-209 (432)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$50.9

Value

$50.06

PnL

-$0.84

Record

35%

2852-5315 (8167)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.98

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$0.48

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.04

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$0.13

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$4.28

Record

21%

133-488 (621)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

223-209 (432)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.