Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 47¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$209.97
$9.61
39.4¢ → 46.5¢
+18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 39.6¢ | $161.26 | $170.32 | +$9.06 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $16.34 | $18.06 | +$1.72 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $13.87 | $11.86 | -$2.01 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $5.65 | $6.25 | +$0.6 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $3.13 | $3.37 | +$0.24 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
Invested
$161.26
Value
$170.32
PnL
+$9.06
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$16.34
Value
$18.06
PnL
+$1.72
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$11.86
PnL
-$2.01
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.6
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.37
PnL
+$0.24
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.