Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 30?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 38¢ · $525 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$524.8
$263.78
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $110.6 | $404.62 | +$294.02 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $71.91 | $54.25 | -$17.66 | 59% 1714-1183 (2897) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $25.65 | $23.4 | -$2.25 | 56% 357-286 (643) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $20.6 | $20 | -$0.5 | 21% 295-1086 (1381) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $39.85 | $16.3 | -$9.35 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $6.7 | $6.22 | -$0.48 | 53% 6459-5657 (12116) |
Invested
$110.6
Value
$404.62
PnL
+$294.02
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
Invested
$71.91
Value
$54.25
PnL
-$17.66
Record
59%
1714-1183 (2897)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$2.25
Record
56%
357-286 (643)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.6
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.5
Record
21%
295-1086 (1381)
Invested
$39.85
Value
$16.3
PnL
-$9.35
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.22
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
6459-5657 (12116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.