Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 65¢ · $450 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$450.27
$57.68
59.5¢ → 65¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $289.25 | $345.26 | +$56 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $50.59 | $49.62 | -$0.97 | 50% 1642-1626 (3268) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $36.35 | $40.1 | +$3.75 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $12.49 | $12.38 | -$0.01 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $4.02 | $2.92 | -$1.1 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
Invested
$289.25
Value
$345.26
PnL
+$56
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
Invested
$50.59
Value
$49.62
PnL
-$0.97
Record
50%
1642-1626 (3268)
Invested
$36.35
Value
$40.1
PnL
+$3.75
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$12.49
Value
$12.38
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$1.1
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.