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YesYesYesNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$19.1
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares253
Combined PnL-$19.1
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $19.1 | — | -$19.1 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1654-1642 (3296) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$19.1
Value
—
PnL
-$19.1
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1654-1642 (3296)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9dfb712b...28de62
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-october-28-2026-18c