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NoYesYesYes
LucerysCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 12°C or below on November 9?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$31.59
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.1
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares349
Combined PnL-$31.69
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $100 | +$0.1 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $23.91 | — | -$23.91 | 30% 2897-6613 (9510) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.74 | — | -$6.85 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.93 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$99.9
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.1
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100Invested
$23.91
Value
—
PnL
-$23.91
Record
30%
2897-6613 (9510)
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$6.85
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.93
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x92641a0b...39b8df
Slug
highest-temperature-in-chengdu-on-november-9-2026-12corbelow