Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 8?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$369.69

Combined PnL

-$74.83

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 98.7¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$337.99

Total Shares345

Combined PnL-$19.54

Yes6 traders

Total Value$31.71

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$55.29

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 97.3¢	$165.36	$150.78	+$1.35	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
balthazar	Noavg 94¢	$120.79	$125.05	+$4.26	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$54.28	$22.02	-$32.26	37% 913-1562 (2475)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$13	$13.12	+$0.1	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$23.83	$11.46	+$0.17	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$12.44	$11.29	-$1.15	97% 522-14 (536)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$89.54	$11.16	-$24.26	13% 603-4221 (4824)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$23.83	$11.06	+$0.3	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$11.63	$5.19	-$5.54	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$8.83	$4.07	-$0.3	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$12.68	$2.82	-$9.86	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$3.24	$0.62	-$2.07	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$15.11	$0.6	-$4.99	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.02	$0.46	-$0.56	54% 10777-9308 (20085)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$165.36

Value

$150.78

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

balthazar

Invested

$120.79

Value

$125.05

PnL

+$4.26

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.28

Value

$22.02

PnL

-$32.26

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$13.12

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.83

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$0.17

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.44

Value

$11.29

PnL

-$1.15

Record

97%

522-14 (536)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$89.54

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$24.26

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$23.83

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0.3

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.63

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$5.54

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.68

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$9.86

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$2.07

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$4.99

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.56

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.