Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on November 7?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $22 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$21.51
$162.83
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 23.9¢ | $55.25 | $21.37 | +$170.6 | 44% 2361-2972 (5333) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.14 | $0.07 | -$0.06 | 53% 12756-11431 (24187) |
LU luciebotCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $112.69 | $0.04 | -$7.47 | 28% 3035-7859 (10894) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.14 | $0.02 | -$0.13 | 17% 4526-22231 (26757) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.12 | $0.01 | -$0.1 | 36% 6031-10818 (16849) |
Invested
$55.25
Value
$21.37
PnL
+$170.6
Record
44%
2361-2972 (5333)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
12756-11431 (24187)
Invested
$112.69
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.47
Record
28%
3035-7859 (10894)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.13
Record
17%
4526-22231 (26757)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.1
Record
36%
6031-10818 (16849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.