Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 7?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.4¢ · $331 held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$330.56

Combined PnL

$599.39

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$250.24

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$300.54

No3 traders

Total Value$80.32

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$298.85

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 27.6¢	$121.14	$250.24	+$300.54	38% 887-1421 (2308)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$53.15	$40.65	-$12.49	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$10.26	$37.9	-$0.71	61% 687-436 (1123)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$44.9	$1.77	+$312.06	44% 2361-2972 (5333)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$121.14

Value

$250.24

PnL

+$300.54

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$53.15

Value

$40.65

PnL

-$12.49

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$10.26

Value

$37.9

PnL

-$0.71

Record

61%

687-436 (1123)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$44.9

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$312.06

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.