Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 39¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$264.34
$19.88
27.9¢ → 38.5¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $116.44 | $160.4 | +$18.53 | 40% 857-1304 (2161) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $251.37 | $72.38 | -$9.7 | 13% 551-3657 (4208) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $50.44 | $44.59 | -$36.41 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $24.97 | $27.79 | +$26.71 | |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $25.18 | $26.59 | +$1.25 | 62% 668-404 (1072) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $3.72 | $3.8 | +$0.08 | 56% 738-570 (1308) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.16 | $1.17 | +$0.02 | 54% 10678-9209 (19887) |
Invested
$116.44
Value
$160.4
PnL
+$18.53
Record
40%
857-1304 (2161)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$251.37
Value
$72.38
PnL
-$9.7
Record
13%
551-3657 (4208)
Both legs:
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$25.18
Value
$26.59
PnL
+$1.25
Record
62%
668-404 (1072)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
56%
738-570 (1308)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
10678-9209 (19887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.