Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on November 6?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$155.84
$0.08
86.3¢ → 91¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $93.09 | $67.25 | -$5.88 | 58% 21279-15443 (36722) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $33.27 | $36 | +$2.73 | 17% 4501-22033 (26534) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $32.59 | $34.07 | +$1.48 | 56% 718-558 (1276) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $16.37 | $18.52 | +$1.75 | 54% 10632-9166 (19798) |
Invested
$93.09
Value
$67.25
PnL
-$5.88
Record
58%
21279-15443 (36722)
2B9S<$100Invested
$33.27
Value
$36
PnL
+$2.73
Record
17%
4501-22033 (26534)
Invested
$32.59
Value
$34.07
PnL
+$1.48
Record
56%
718-558 (1276)
Invested
$16.37
Value
$18.52
PnL
+$1.75
Record
54%
10632-9166 (19798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.